The age of dystocia (II).
Generational cycles. Sunday, September 27th of 2020.
The age of dystocia. Josep Bou Ferreiro.
«A beginning is the time for taking the most delicate care that the balances are correct».
Frank Herbert’s first sentence from «Dune».
Religion says that death is just the beginning, the gate to the next life. Then, a time when everything seems to end and die, is quite difficult to distinguish from a time when everything is about to start and be born, don’t you think? That’s what we find in the Death card on the featured image.
In our last post we speculated on the USA’s future and forecasted the kind of changes to happen in the coming months.
The USA are one of those associations also known as «empires» (at least in Deulofeu’s terms) and as such it goes through different steps in the relationship among its components. According with the cyclic model in the Mathematics of History, this arrangement will remain around 550 years in our chronology, a period resulting from comparing different peoples and civilization and obtaining an average. As a result, its end should happen before the year 2400, that is, during the 24th century.
We in this blog have gone one step further and presented shorter patterns of 39 and 40 years for this case, according to Wifredo Pareto’s Theory of Circulation of elite and our own observations. From them, we infere that the first imperial phase, aka «First Aggresive Process» starts with the independence in 1781 and goes on for 160 years until they went to war during WWII.
Look here in the stress diagram (as a first approximation), where a series of trigonometric functions are plotted as a sum of them using as coefficients the length of the internal cycles within the generational period (in orange colour), while (in red) we show its derivative: top and minimum dots show inflections or turning points in the stress.
General scheme from a 40 year long historical generation in the USA.
Focus on the red dots, which are times for change, especially around 2040, with a release of stress before 2044 (we defined it in our last post as «intensification»). It is in the midterm of the period and related to important facts, like the Jeffersonian, the Kennedy era or the 9/11 attack to the WTC. In such circumstances also happened the decease or killing of several american presidents: Harrison and Harding, or Garfield and Kennedy.
At the end of the period, stress declines, but be aware that, as change in 2061 will be softer, it has to be considered within a bigger cycle of 80 years, which restarts all over again in 2101. For that reason, we must observe the longer cycle and the general concentration cycle (imperial) to have a more precise idea about it.
The unitary phase, the second birth.
After the 80 year long cycle from the American Civil War, a peak is reached in the expansion during the «first aggressive process». Later, what should have been a slow decline starting in the Great Depression in the ’30s from 20th century, was interrupted by the establishment of a war economy, which dumped resources and state planning in order to rebuild activity. It recovered, but this didn’t avoid a degradation of political, military and economic power during the following decades, years we can check until 2021, a date when we foresee a break down, the period previous to a historical boom. Such boom is called the «2nd aggressive process» or «absolutist phase» and will be finished depending on how fast and aggressive the government acts.
Systematically, in all empires appear groups trying to unify all resources and available forces, to avoid a bigger disaster, or even with the goal of diverting the situation. What they get is reducing all of them to a single form, a single way of thinking and a single identity, as a result of an integral reshape.
We apologize for the example, but it is like putting all parts from a body again inside an artificial matrix or womb, and then deliver a second birth or labor. Tragically, in many cases society is crushed in order to take profit from the pieces and synthesize a new organism, or at least that’s the intention.
That’s the reason why we entitled this post as dystocia, a difficult and painful labor.
But if you prefer, you can look at it as the adult age crisis within the social body, when it decides what it wants to be in the coming future.
We have also chosen the card of the Empress as a symbol of such duality in purpose. Chris-Anne made wonderful pictures identifying the world to come, what we consider an opportunity to create something new without any need to crush anybody.
The north-american case, as we have told, has a natural 80 year long period, until 2101, but it may be shorter depending on the degree of confrontation with the rest of the world, as the US vocation tends to enclose and absorb all Western world. In case it becomes overwhelming, the violent reaction may counteract it as soon as in 2041 through a military disaster for them. Or in 2046, a key year belonging to the other main generational cycle in the US.
In such a setback they will acquit themselves well, with an espectacular recovery and an overwhelming economic capacity, but less aggressive in the military.
The rest of the imperial time, the «plenitude» will happen softly during a time between 40 years (their typical generation cycle) and some centuries. Anyway, it will be a turbulent era and the final crisis unleashing decomposition, internal civil war and instability has a date as a best candidate: 2261. Likewise, the end of the empire may happen in 2301 (a year we choose for different reasons, which we will explain in due time), or in the key year from the 39 year long period, in 2319. For sure, before 2341.
The length of such imperial phases always depends on the conviction within subjects under the State and the interaction with other human entities, apart from its knowledge of the Mathematics of History.
For instance, the phase of great depression in the German Empire was identified by Deulofeu between 1918 and 1933 (Weimar’s Republic). Due to the pressure against Germany from several empires still in plenitude, the fall was accelerated and also the aggressive following phase was shortened (1933-1945).
From our point of view, however, all this process should be enclosed within a single historical generation (1909-1949), because it starts with a failure in setting a constitutional and financial reform in the imperial framework (1908-1909) and ends in 1949 with the official division of Germany after being defeated. Its case is so special, it deserves to be developed in a future work.
Please consider a last fact: aggressiveness will always be present, but not in the traditional costume, as the time for heroics and military epic is vanishing. That’s because weapons, although present, sophisticated and deadly, leave room to more subtle ones, in the general context of new dominant and opposing ideologies. A context we are going to expose soon.
Until then (hopefully not long), keep safe.
Link to the original article in Castillian (Spanish) and English language:
https://timecycleblog.wordpress.com/2020/09/27/la-era-de-la-distocia-the-age-of-dystocia/